Human Intelligence LLC
Policy Paper  ·  Jamaica  ·  July 2026

The Meter Between

Separating fuel cost, system loss, and margin before Jamaica locks in the next JPS electricity rate
Thomas Green Israel
Founder, Human Intelligence LLC
Graduate, Titchfield High School, Portland, Jamaica
A.Sc. Mathematics & Physics, C.A.S.E.  ·  B.Sc. Physics, Fisk University
ISGAP Fellow, University of Oxford  ·  Yale University School of Divinity (Admitted; Declined)
A.I. Engineer, Deloitte  ·  Contractor, U.S. Department of the Interior
International Student (sabbatical), CWRU Weatherhead School of Management & School of Law
Executive Summary

Jamaican households pay among the highest electricity tariffs in the Western Hemisphere. That tariff is not a single number — it is a stack of three separately-caused costs that arrive at the customer's meter fused into one bill: the cost of imported fuel, the cost of electricity that is generated but never billed (system loss), and the regulated return earned by the Jamaica Public Service Company. When the three are billed as one, a cost caused by one party is silently paid for by another.

The Office of Utilities Regulation periodically reviews and resets the JPS tariff. The single most consequential decision in that review is how much of the roughly 26 percent system loss the customer is required to fund versus how much the utility must absorb. Every percentage point of loss shifted onto the customer is, in effect, a charge for electricity the customer never received.

This paper argues that the tariff review should require cost separation before cost recovery: fuel, loss, and margin should be disaggregated, each attributed to the party that controls it, and only then recombined into a rate. It sets out how the separation works and three recommendations to the Office of Utilities Regulation and the Ministry of Science, Energy and Technology.

~26%
System losses — technical plus non-technical — on the JPS grid
3
Distinct cost causes fused into one tariff line
1 party
Controls the loss; a different party pays for most of it
Each review
The loss-sharing decision is reset — and rarely separated
The Bill

One Number, Three Causes

An electricity tariff feels like a price. It is not. It is a settlement — the agreed division, between a utility and its customers, of the total cost of delivering power. In Jamaica that total cost is dominated by three components with three completely different origins.

The first is fuel. Jamaica imports the fossil fuel that generates most of its electricity, and the price of that fuel is set on world markets far outside the control of either JPS or the Jamaican customer. This cost is genuinely external; passing it through is defensible.

The second is system loss: electricity that JPS generates and buys but never bills, because it is lost in transmission and distribution (technical loss) or stolen through illegal connections and unmetered use (non-technical loss). On the JPS grid, combined losses have run at roughly one-quarter of all electricity on the system — a figure many times the loss rate of a well-run grid.

The third is margin: the regulated return JPS is permitted to earn on its assets, the incentive for it to remain a going concern and to invest.

The Gap

These three costs have three different controllers. Fuel is controlled by the world. Margin is controlled by the regulator. But system loss is controlled overwhelmingly by the utility, which owns the network, chooses the maintenance schedule, and holds the meters. When all three are billed as a single tariff line, the customer cannot see how much of the bill is the cost of the utility's own losses — and a cost the utility controls is quietly recovered from a customer who does not.

The Mechanism

Why Loss-Sharing Is the Decision That Matters

In every tariff review the regulator must answer one question that dwarfs the others in its effect on the household bill: of the electricity lost to the grid, what share should the customer pay for and what share must the utility absorb? This is the loss-sharing rule, and it is where cost-attribution either happens or fails to happen.

Consider the structure of the incentive. If the tariff allows the utility to recover most of its losses from customers, the utility bears little of the cost of losing electricity — and therefore has weak financial reason to invest in the metering, network hardening, and anti-theft enforcement that would reduce loss. If instead the tariff caps recoverable loss at the level a well-run grid would achieve, every point of loss above that cap is borne by the utility, and reducing loss becomes directly profitable to it.

The loss-sharing rule, in other words, is not an accounting detail. It is the single lever that determines whether the party that controls the loss has any reason to reduce it. A tariff that passes loss through in full removes that reason entirely.

The Principle

A cost should be recovered from the party that controls it. Fuel cost, controlled by no one locally, is legitimately passed to customers. Loss cost, controlled by the utility, should be recovered from the utility above a defined efficiency benchmark — with only the benchmark level of loss passed to customers. This aligns the bill with causation.

The Method

Separate, Attribute, Recombine

Human Intelligence LLC proposes that the tariff review adopt a three-step discipline before any single rate number is published.

1
Separate the Stack

Publish the tariff not as one figure but as its three constituent components — fuel, loss, and margin — each expressed as a per-kilowatt-hour amount. This is a transparency step only; it changes no policy. But it makes visible, for the first time on the household bill, how much of the price is the cost of electricity the household never received.

2
Attribute Each Component to Its Controller

For each component, name the party with operational control. Fuel: external market. Margin: regulator-set. Loss: split into technical loss (network design and maintenance — utility-controlled) and non-technical loss (theft — a shared responsibility of utility metering and enforcement). Attribution is the analytical core: it converts a fused bill into a map of who caused what.

3
Recombine Against a Benchmark

Set a loss benchmark — the loss rate a comparably-sized, well-run tropical grid achieves — and allow the customer tariff to fund loss only up to that benchmark. Loss above the benchmark is recovered from utility margin, on a glide path that gives the utility time to close the gap. The recombined tariff now prices the same total cost, but assigns the controllable portion to the controller.

Policy Recommendations

Three Actions for the Regulator

Recommendation 1 — OUR: Require a Disaggregated Tariff Filing

The Office of Utilities Regulation should require that any JPS tariff submission present fuel, system loss, and regulated margin as separately-stated per-kilowatt-hour components, with the loss component further split into technical and non-technical. No single blended rate should be approved without this breakdown on the public record. Transparency is a precondition, not a concession.

Recommendation 2 — OUR: Set an Explicit Loss Benchmark With a Glide Path

The regulator should fix a target loss rate benchmarked to well-run grids of comparable scale and climate, and cap customer-funded loss at that benchmark. Loss above the benchmark should be recovered from utility margin, phased over a defined number of years so the utility can invest in metering and network hardening rather than face a cliff. The glide path converts loss reduction from a discretionary goal into a financial obligation.

Recommendation 3 — MSET: Commission an Independent Loss Audit Before Renewal

Before any licence renewal or major tariff reset, the Ministry of Science, Energy and Technology should commission an independent technical audit of where system loss physically occurs on the grid — separating feeder-level technical loss from geographic theft concentration. A rate cannot fairly divide a cost that has never been measured at the point where it occurs. The audit is the evidentiary foundation the loss-sharing rule requires.

Conclusion

Price the Cost to Its Cause

The high price of Jamaican electricity is often debated as if it were a single grievance against a single company. It is more precise, and more useful, to see it as three costs wearing one number. Two of those costs — fuel and a reasonable margin — belong on the customer's bill. The third — the cost of a quarter of all electricity vanishing before it is billed — belongs, above an efficient benchmark, on the balance sheet of the party that owns the network.

The tariff review is the one moment where that separation can be written into law rather than argued about after the fact. Separating the stack costs nothing and changes no policy by itself. But it is the step without which every subsequent decision — how much loss to fund, how fast to reduce it, what return to allow — is made in the dark. Human Intelligence LLC is prepared to support the Office of Utilities Regulation and the Ministry with the cost-attribution analysis this separation requires.

About the Author

Thomas Green Israel is a Jamaican-born polymath, self-taught quantum field theorist, and the founder of Human Intelligence LLC — a proudly Jamaican think tank dedicated to engineering solutions to Jamaica's most complex structural challenges.

Born in Portland and a graduate of Titchfield High School, Thomas holds an Associate of Science in Mathematics and Physics from the College of Agriculture, Science and Education (C.A.S.E.) and a Bachelor of Science in Physics from Fisk University in Nashville, Tennessee. He was an ISGAP Fellow at the University of Oxford and was admitted to Yale University School of Divinity, which he declined in order to pursue independent research. He has served as an Artificial Intelligence Engineer at Deloitte and as a Contractor with the United States Department of the Interior. He is currently a double-admit international student at Case Western Reserve University, jointly enrolled at the Weatherhead School of Management and the School of Law, on academic sabbatical. He is the father of Gianna.

Thomas is answering the Prime Minister's call to come home. He intends to return to Jamaica — not as a visitor, but as a builder — and Human Intelligence LLC is the vehicle for that return. His ambition is to be present in and for this country, doing the work that needs to be done, from here. He welcomes the opportunity to present these findings to the Office of Utilities Regulation and the Ministry of Science, Energy and Technology.

thomasgreenisrael@gmail.com
This paper was prepared for public distribution. No proprietary methodology or intellectual property of Human Intelligence LLC is disclosed herein. The analysis is based on publicly available sources including Office of Utilities Regulation tariff determinations, JPS published system-loss and financial reporting, and reporting by the Jamaica Observer and the Gleaner on electricity costs and utility regulation.