Human Intelligence LLC
Policy Paper  ·  Jamaica  ·  July 2026

The Missing Harvest

Praedial larceny is not a theft problem the police can solve alone — it is a traceability gap in the food chain
Thomas Green Israel
Founder, Human Intelligence LLC
Graduate, Titchfield High School, Portland, Jamaica
A.Sc. Mathematics & Physics, C.A.S.E.  ·  B.Sc. Physics, Fisk University
ISGAP Fellow, University of Oxford  ·  Yale University School of Divinity (Admitted; Declined)
A.I. Engineer, Deloitte  ·  Contractor, U.S. Department of the Interior
International Student (sabbatical), CWRU Weatherhead School of Management & School of Law
Executive Summary

Praedial larceny — the theft of crops and livestock from farms — costs Jamaican agriculture heavily every year, discourages investment, and pushes farmers out of production. It is usually framed as a policing problem: catch the thieves. But the thief is only the middle of a chain that runs from a field to a buyer, and the reason the theft pays is that stolen produce launders cleanly into the market. There is no way, at the point of sale, to tell a stolen yam from a lawful one.

This is a traceability gap, not merely an enforcement gap. Stolen produce is profitable precisely because the food chain cannot distinguish it from legitimate produce. Close that gap — make legitimate produce provable and unprovable produce hard to sell — and the economics of the theft collapse from the demand side, where policing alone can never reach.

This paper reframes praedial larceny as a chain-of-custody problem in the food supply, identifies where the chain currently breaks, and offers four recommendations to the Ministry of Agriculture for a traceability-led response that makes the market itself hostile to stolen goods.

Heavy
Annual losses praedial larceny imposes on farmers
Middle
The thief is one link in a field-to-buyer chain
Launders
Stolen produce sells because it cannot be told apart
Demand
Where traceability cuts the theft — policing cannot
The Chain

Theft Is Profitable Because the Market Is Blind

Follow a stolen crop. It leaves a field it does not belong to, passes to a receiver, enters a market or a middleman, and is bought by a vendor or a consumer who has no way to know its origin. At every step after the theft, the produce is indistinguishable from lawful produce. That indistinguishability is the entire business model: the thief is paid not for stealing but for selling something the market cannot question.

Policing attacks the theft — the one link that is hardest to observe, occurring at night on remote land. But the chain has other links that are far more visible: the receiver, the market, the point of sale. A response that makes those visible links demand proof of lawful origin attacks the theft where it is easiest to reach, by making the stolen good unsellable rather than by catching the thief in the act.

The Gap

Jamaica lacks a practical way for a farmer to prove that produce is lawfully theirs, and for a buyer to require that proof. Receipt-book and permit schemes exist but are inconsistently used and easily forged or ignored. Without provable origin flowing with the produce, the market cannot refuse stolen goods even when it would prefer to — and the theft stays profitable no matter how many thieves are caught.

The Response

Four Components of a Traceability System

1
Provable Origin That Travels With the Produce

Legitimate produce should carry a lightweight, hard-to-forge proof of lawful origin — a documented, verifiable record linking the goods to a registered producer. The proof must be cheap enough for a small farmer to use and credible enough for a buyer to rely on. Provable origin is the foundation; everything else depends on it.

2
Buyer-Side Demand for Proof

Traceability works only if buyers require it. Markets, supermarkets, hotels, and processors — the concentrated demand points — should be enabled and, where appropriate, required to demand proof of origin for the produce they buy. A few large buyers requiring proof reshapes the whole market's behaviour.

3
A Registered-Producer Backbone

Proof of origin presupposes a register of who legitimately produces what and where. A practical producer registry — usable from a basic phone, not a bureaucratic ordeal — is the backbone against which any origin claim is checked.

4
Enforcement Focused on the Visible Links

With traceability in place, enforcement shifts from the invisible theft to the visible market: a vendor selling produce with no provable origin is now the observable offence. Policing becomes a check on a documented system rather than a hunt across dark fields.

Policy Recommendations

Four Actions for the Ministry of Agriculture

Recommendation 1 — Deploy a Phone-Simple Producer Registry

Build or strengthen a producer registry usable from a basic mobile phone, so that lawful origin has a backbone to be checked against. The registry must be simple enough that the smallest farmer uses it, or it protects only the largest.

Recommendation 2 — Issue Provable, Low-Cost Proof of Origin

Provide a lightweight, hard-to-forge proof of lawful origin that travels with produce from farm to buyer. The proof must be cheap for the farmer and credible for the buyer; both conditions are required or the market will ignore it.

Recommendation 3 — Make Concentrated Buyers Require Proof

Enable and, where appropriate, require the large concentrated buyers — supermarkets, hotels, processors — to demand proof of origin. Reshaping the behaviour of a few large buyers closes the market to stolen goods faster than any number of arrests.

Recommendation 4 — Refocus Enforcement on the Point of Sale

Direct enforcement toward the visible market links — produce offered for sale without provable origin — rather than solely toward the theft itself. Traceability converts an unobservable crime into an observable one; enforcement should follow it there.

Conclusion

Make the Market Refuse the Stolen Good

Praedial larceny persists not because Jamaica cannot catch thieves but because the market cannot tell stolen produce from lawful produce, so the theft always finds a buyer. Attacking the theft alone attacks the one link in the chain that is hardest to see. Closing the traceability gap attacks the theft from the demand side — it makes lawful produce provable and unprovable produce hard to sell, so that stealing stops paying regardless of how many thieves are apprehended.

A farmer who can prove ownership, a buyer who can demand proof, and a register that anchors both: these turn the food chain itself into the enforcement mechanism. Human Intelligence LLC is prepared to support the Ministry of Agriculture in designing the traceability backbone this response requires.

About the Author

Thomas Green Israel is a Jamaican-born polymath, self-taught quantum field theorist, and the founder of Human Intelligence LLC — a proudly Jamaican think tank dedicated to engineering solutions to Jamaica's most complex structural challenges.

Born in Portland and a graduate of Titchfield High School, Thomas holds an Associate of Science in Mathematics and Physics from the College of Agriculture, Science and Education (C.A.S.E.) and a Bachelor of Science in Physics from Fisk University in Nashville, Tennessee. He was an ISGAP Fellow at the University of Oxford and was admitted to Yale University School of Divinity, which he declined in order to pursue independent research. He has served as an Artificial Intelligence Engineer at Deloitte and as a Contractor with the United States Department of the Interior. He is currently a double-admit international student at Case Western Reserve University, jointly enrolled at the Weatherhead School of Management and the School of Law, on academic sabbatical. He is the father of Gianna.

Thomas is answering the Prime Minister's call to come home. He intends to return to Jamaica — not as a visitor, but as a builder — and Human Intelligence LLC is the vehicle for that return. His ambition is to be present in and for this country, doing the work that needs to be done, from here. He welcomes the opportunity to present these findings to the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining.

thomasgreenisrael@gmail.com
This paper was prepared for public distribution. No proprietary methodology or intellectual property of Human Intelligence LLC is disclosed herein. The analysis is based on publicly available sources including reporting by the Jamaica Observer and the Gleaner on praedial larceny, and published statements of the Ministry of Agriculture and the Jamaica Agricultural Commodities Regulatory Authority.