Human Intelligence LLC
Policy Paper  ·  Jamaica  ·  July 2026

Following the Card

The lottery scam has left the wire transfer behind — Jamaica's interdiction must follow it to the debit card, the gift card, and the app
Thomas Green Israel
Founder, Human Intelligence LLC
Graduate, Titchfield High School, Portland, Jamaica
A.Sc. Mathematics & Physics, C.A.S.E.  ·  B.Sc. Physics, Fisk University
ISGAP Fellow, University of Oxford  ·  Yale University School of Divinity (Admitted; Declined)
A.I. Engineer, Deloitte  ·  Contractor, U.S. Department of the Interior
International Student (sabbatical), CWRU Weatherhead School of Management & School of Law
Executive Summary

Jamaica's advance-fee lottery scam is not a technology problem or a policing failure in the ordinary sense. It is a money-movement problem — and the money has moved. For years the scam's proceeds travelled by wire transfer and money-remittance services, the channels Jamaica's interdiction was built to watch. As those channels were monitored, the proceeds migrated to reloadable debit cards, retail gift cards, peer-to-peer payment apps, and stored-value instruments that leave a thinner and more fragmented trail.

This is a textbook adaptation: enforcement pressure on one channel does not stop the flow, it reroutes it. The interdiction architecture that watches wire and remittance is now watching a channel the money has largely left. The proceeds are moving through a seventh channel — the card-and-app layer — that current monitoring was not designed to see.

This paper maps the migration of scam proceeds across payment channels, explains why single-channel enforcement guarantees this migration, and sets out three recommendations to the Ministry of National Security and the Financial Investigations Division to build channel-agnostic interdiction that follows the money rather than the method.

7th
The card-and-app channel proceeds have migrated into
1 channel
Most interdiction still watches — the one being left behind
Reroute
What single-channel enforcement produces, not deterrence
Cross-border
Where the trail fragments and Jamaican reach ends
The Migration

Enforcement Pressure Reroutes; It Does Not Stop

Every payment channel is a pipe. When a criminal enterprise depends on moving money and one pipe is placed under surveillance, the enterprise does not stop moving money — it finds another pipe. This is the single most reliable behaviour in the economics of illicit finance, and it is exactly what has happened to the lottery scam.

The proceeds began in the channels Jamaica watched most closely: bank wires and money-remittance services, both of which carry identity requirements and reporting thresholds. As monitoring and international cooperation tightened on those channels, the proceeds moved — to reloadable prepaid debit cards bought with cash, to retail gift cards whose codes can be transmitted as a photograph, and to peer-to-peer payment applications that settle in seconds between accounts that may never have met a compliance officer.

The Gap

Jamaica's interdiction is organised by channel — the remittance monitoring watches remittance, the bank reporting watches banks. But the scam is organised by outcome — it will use whatever channel currently carries the lowest interdiction risk. A channel-organised defence against an outcome-organised adversary loses by construction: the adversary simply moves to the channel the defence does not cover, and the defence, watching an emptying pipe, reports declining volume as if it were success.

The Trap

Why Declining Wire Volume Is Not a Win

There is a specific and dangerous failure mode in single-channel interdiction: the metric of success is the volume flowing through the monitored channel, and that volume can fall for two opposite reasons. It can fall because the crime is shrinking — the outcome everyone wants. Or it can fall because the crime has moved to a channel no one is measuring — the outcome that looks identical on the dashboard.

A monitoring system that watches only the wire channel cannot tell these two apart. Falling wire volume is reported up the chain as interdiction working, precisely at the moment the proceeds have relocated to the card layer and the true flow may be unchanged or growing. The defence congratulates itself on an emptying pipe. This is not a hypothetical risk; it is the predictable consequence of measuring the method instead of the money.

The Principle

Interdiction must be organised around the flow of value, not the mechanism of transfer. A channel-agnostic system asks "where is the scam's money now?" — and follows it across wire, card, gift card, and app as a single continuous target. Any system that can be defeated by the adversary changing payment method is not an interdiction system; it is a monitor of one obsolete habit.

The Response

Three Components of Channel-Agnostic Interdiction

1
Map the Full Channel Set, Then Watch All of It

The first task is not enforcement but cartography: enumerate every channel through which scam proceeds currently move — wire, remittance, prepaid card, gift card, P2P app, cryptocurrency, and cash courier — and assign monitoring responsibility for each. A channel with no assigned watcher is the channel the money will choose next. The map must be revisited continuously, because the adversary revises it continuously.

2
Engage the Card and App Issuers Directly

The card-and-app layer is operated by identifiable companies — prepaid card networks, retail gift-card issuers, and payment-app operators. These companies have their own fraud and compliance obligations and their own data. A structured cooperation framework with them — shared typologies, defined referral channels, and account-level cooperation on confirmed scam patterns — extends Jamaica's reach into channels it does not directly regulate. The retailer selling the gift card is a partner the interdiction currently does not use.

3
Measure the Whole, Not the Part

Interdiction metrics must be redefined at the level of total estimated scam value moved across all channels, not volume in any single channel. Only a whole-flow metric can distinguish a shrinking crime from a migrating one — the distinction on which the entire credibility of the effort depends.

Policy Recommendations

Three Actions for Government

Recommendation 1 — FID: Build and Maintain a Live Channel Map

The Financial Investigations Division should maintain a continuously-updated map of the channels through which lottery-scam proceeds move, with named monitoring responsibility for each channel including the newer card, gift-card, and app layers. The map is the master document from which all other interdiction follows; without it, coverage gaps are invisible until exploited.

Recommendation 2 — MNS / FID: Establish Issuer Cooperation Frameworks

The Ministry of National Security and the FID should establish formal cooperation frameworks with prepaid-card networks, major gift-card issuers, and payment-app operators — modelled on existing bank and remittance reporting relationships — so that the card-and-app layer becomes a monitored channel rather than a blind spot. The issuers hold data Jamaica cannot obtain any other way.

Recommendation 3 — FID: Report Whole-Flow Interdiction Metrics

The FID should replace single-channel volume metrics with a whole-flow estimate of total scam value moved and interdicted across all channels, published periodically. This is the metric that prevents the fatal error of celebrating a channel that has merely been vacated.

Conclusion

Follow the Money, Not the Method

The lottery scam has cost Jamaica in money, in the safety of vulnerable victims abroad, and in reputation. The instinct to fight it channel by channel is understandable — each channel is a concrete thing that can be watched. But an adversary whose only requirement is to move value will always relocate to the unwatched channel, and a defence built around one channel will always be reporting success at the exact moment it is being outrun.

The fix is a change of unit: stop counting wires and start following value. Map every channel, engage the issuers of the new ones, and measure the whole flow. This is analytically demanding but conceptually simple, and it is the only architecture that cannot be defeated by the criminals changing their payment habit. Human Intelligence LLC is prepared to support the Financial Investigations Division and the Ministry of National Security in building channel-agnostic interdiction.

About the Author

Thomas Green Israel is a Jamaican-born polymath, self-taught quantum field theorist, and the founder of Human Intelligence LLC — a proudly Jamaican think tank dedicated to engineering solutions to Jamaica's most complex structural challenges.

Born in Portland and a graduate of Titchfield High School, Thomas holds an Associate of Science in Mathematics and Physics from the College of Agriculture, Science and Education (C.A.S.E.) and a Bachelor of Science in Physics from Fisk University in Nashville, Tennessee. He was an ISGAP Fellow at the University of Oxford and was admitted to Yale University School of Divinity, which he declined in order to pursue independent research. He has served as an Artificial Intelligence Engineer at Deloitte and as a Contractor with the United States Department of the Interior. He is currently a double-admit international student at Case Western Reserve University, jointly enrolled at the Weatherhead School of Management and the School of Law, on academic sabbatical. He is the father of Gianna.

Thomas is answering the Prime Minister's call to come home. He intends to return to Jamaica — not as a visitor, but as a builder — and Human Intelligence LLC is the vehicle for that return. His ambition is to be present in and for this country, doing the work that needs to be done, from here. He welcomes the opportunity to present these findings to the Ministry of National Security and the Financial Investigations Division.

thomasgreenisrael@gmail.com
This paper was prepared for public distribution. No proprietary methodology or intellectual property of Human Intelligence LLC is disclosed herein. The analysis is based on publicly available sources including reporting by the Jamaica Observer and the Gleaner on the lottery scam and money-laundering methods, and published statements of the Financial Investigations Division and the Major Organised Crime and Anti-Corruption Agency.